{"id":4788,"date":"2026-07-31T15:37:17","date_gmt":"2026-07-31T08:37:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thereporter.asia\/eng\/?p=4788"},"modified":"2026-07-31T15:37:17","modified_gmt":"2026-07-31T08:37:17","slug":"clmv-growth-slowing-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thereporter.asia\/eng\/2026\/07\/clmv-growth-slowing-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"SCB EIC Sees 2026 CLMV Growth Slowing to 6.2% Amid Global Risks"},"content":{"rendered":"<p id=\"p-rc_614deb11f2779035-82\" data-path-to-node=\"3\"><span data-path-to-node=\"3,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"3,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\"><span class=\"citation-309\">SCB EIC projects CLMV economic growth to moderate to 6.2% in 2026 amid geopolitical shocks, potential U.S. tariffs, and domestic constraints.<\/span><\/b> <\/span><\/p>\n<h2 data-path-to-node=\"4\">Broad-Based Economic Moderation Across CLMV<\/h2>\n<p id=\"p-rc_614deb11f2779035-83\" data-path-to-node=\"5\"><span data-path-to-node=\"5,1\"><span class=\"citation-308\">The Economic Intelligence Center of Siam Commercial Bank (SCB EIC) forecasts that economic growth across the CLMV region (Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Vietnam) will slow to 6.2% in 2026, down from 7.1% in 2025<\/span><\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"5,3\">. <\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"5,5\"><span class=\"citation-307\">This broad-based deceleration reflects an increasingly challenging external environment alongside constrained domestic policy buffers across all four regional economies<\/span><\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"5,7\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p id=\"p-rc_614deb11f2779035-84\" data-path-to-node=\"6\"><span data-path-to-node=\"6,1\"><span class=\"citation-306\">Elevated downside risks continue to test regional economic resilience<\/span><\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"6,3\">. <\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"6,5\"><span class=\"citation-305\">Prolonged geopolitical tensions in the Middle East threaten to push energy prices higher, generating inflationary pressures, weakening local currencies, and delaying monetary easing measures necessary for domestic financial stability<\/span><\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"6,7\">. <\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"6,9\"><span class=\"citation-304\">Furthermore, softer global demand is projected to dampen export performance, tourism recovery, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, while excess production capacity from China presents stiff competition for domestic producers<\/span><\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"6,11\">. <\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"6,13\"><span class=\"citation-303\">Potential U.S. Section 301 tariffs pose additional downside risks, particularly for Vietnam and Cambodia due to their significant exposure to the U.S. market<\/span><\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"6,15\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 data-path-to-node=\"8\">Country-Specific Performance and Buffers<\/h2>\n<p id=\"p-rc_614deb11f2779035-85\" data-path-to-node=\"9\"><span data-path-to-node=\"9,1\"><span class=\"citation-302\">Vietnam is set to remain the regional growth outperformer with a projected expansion of 7.1% in 2026, compared to 8.0% in 2025<\/span><\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"9,3\">. <\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"9,5\"><span class=\"citation-301\">Growth will be anchored by its structural integration into global electronics supply chains, strong AI-related exports, sustained foreign direct investment inflows, resilient tourism, and supportive macroeconomic policies<\/span><\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"9,7\">. <\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"9,9\"><span class=\"citation-300\">However, Vietnam&#8217;s high export openess leaves it particularly vulnerable to global trade headwinds and external policy shifts<\/span><\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"9,11\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p id=\"p-rc_614deb11f2779035-86\" data-path-to-node=\"10\"><span data-path-to-node=\"10,1\"><span class=\"citation-299\">Growth in Cambodia is projected to moderate to 3.7% in 2026 from 5.3% in 2025<\/span><\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"10,3\">. <\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"10,5\"><span class=\"citation-298\">The slowdown is largely driven by elevated energy import costs, softer domestic demand, ongoing border tensions with Thailand, and high non-performing loans (NPLs)<\/span><\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"10,7\">. <\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"10,9\"><span class=\"citation-297\">Nevertheless, Cambodia\u2019s competitive light manufacturing base and resilient export capabilities are expected to cushion the downside<\/span><\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"10,11\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p id=\"p-rc_614deb11f2779035-87\" data-path-to-node=\"11\"><span data-path-to-node=\"11,1\"><span class=\"citation-296\">Lao PDR is forecasted to grow at 4.1%, down from 4.8% in 2025, as local currency weakness keeps inflation and import costs high, restricting space for monetary easing<\/span><\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"11,3\">. <\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"11,5\"><span class=\"citation-295\">Electricity exports and tourism will serve as key economic stabilizers, though high external debt will keep overall stability fragile<\/span><\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"11,7\">. <\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"11,9\"><span class=\"citation-294\">Meanwhile, Myanmar\u2019s economic expansion is expected to soften to 2.6% from 3.4% in 2025<\/span><\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"11,11\">. <\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"11,13\"><span class=\"citation-293\">While supported slightly by external demand, rare-earth exports, and post-earthquake reconstruction, recovery remains deeply constrained by ongoing political instability and structural bottlenecks<\/span><\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"11,15\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"code-block ng-tns-c1831457620-355 ng-animate-disabled ng-trigger ng-trigger-codeBlockRevealAnimation\" data-hveid=\"0\" data-ved=\"0CAAQhtANahgKEwj0iI3y_fuVAxUAAAAAHQAAAAAQ0AY\">\n<div class=\"formatted-code-block-internal-container ng-tns-c1831457620-355\">\n<div class=\"animated-opacity ng-tns-c1831457620-355\">\n<pre class=\"ng-tns-c1831457620-355\"><code class=\"code-container formatted ng-tns-c1831457620-355 no-decoration-radius\" role=\"text\" data-test-id=\"code-content\">+-----------+---------------+---------------+\r\n| Country   | 2025 GDP Growth | 2026 GDP Growth |\r\n+-----------+---------------+---------------+\r\n| Vietnam   | 8.0%          | 7.1%          |\r\n| Cambodia  | 5.3%          | 3.7%          |\r\n| Lao PDR   | 4.8%          | 4.1%          |\r\n| Myanmar   | 3.4%          | 2.6%          |\r\n| Total CLMV| 7.1%          | 6.2%          |\r\n+-----------+---------------+---------------+\r\n<\/code><\/pre>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2 data-path-to-node=\"14\">Strategic Implications for Thailand<\/h2>\n<p id=\"p-rc_614deb11f2779035-88\" data-path-to-node=\"15\"><span data-path-to-node=\"15,1\"><span class=\"citation-292\">The regional economic deceleration directly affects Thailand&#8217;s economic dynamics, primarily leading to a narrower trade surplus with the CLMV block in 2026<\/span><\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"15,3\">. <\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"15,5\"><span class=\"citation-291\">Thai export volumes are expected to weaken due to softer regional demand and persistent Thailand\u2013Cambodia border friction<\/span><\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"15,7\">. <\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"15,9\"><span class=\"citation-290\">Conversely, Thai imports from the region will remain resilient, driven predominantly by technology products\u2014such as AI-related machinery and computers\u2014sourced from Vietnam<\/span><\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"15,11\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p id=\"p-rc_614deb11f2779035-89\" data-path-to-node=\"16\"><span data-path-to-node=\"16,1\"><span class=\"citation-289\">Thai outward direct investment into CLMV markets is anticipated to slow over the near term as economic uncertainties prompt businesses to adopt a selective, wait-and-see strategy<\/span><\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"16,3\">. <\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"16,5\"><span class=\"citation-288\">Despite short-term headwinds, the CLMV region remains strategically vital for Thai enterprises pursuing long-term value creation through natural resource access, cost competitiveness, regional supply chain linkages, and growing consumer markets<\/span><\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"16,7\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p id=\"p-rc_614deb11f2779035-90\" data-path-to-node=\"17\"><span data-path-to-node=\"17,1\"><span class=\"citation-287\">Detailed analysis and full regional economic updates are available directly through SCB EIC channels at <\/span><a class=\"ng-star-inserted\" href=\"https:\/\/www.scbeic.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-hveid=\"0\" data-ved=\"0CAAQ_4QMahgKEwj0iI3y_fuVAxUAAAAAHQAAAAAQ0wY\"><span class=\"citation-287\">www.scbeic.com<\/span><\/a><\/span><span data-path-to-node=\"17,3\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"18\">#SCBEIC #CLMV #EconomicOutlook #SoutheastAsia #Trade #Macroeconomics #Vietnam #Cambodia #LaoPDR #Myanmar #Thailand<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>SCB EIC projects CLMV economic growth to moderate to 6.2% in 2026 amid geopolitical shocks, potential U.S. tariffs, and domestic constraints. Broad-Based Economic Moderation Across CLMV The Economic Intelligence Center of Siam Commercial Bank (SCB EIC) forecasts that economic growth&#8230; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4790,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[716],"tags":[5730,2928,3891,5729],"class_list":["post-4788","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-report","tag-5730","tag-clmv","tag-economic-growth","tag-scb-eic"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>CLMV Growth Slowing to 6.2% in 2026 Amid Global Risks<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"CLMV economic growth to slow to 6.2% in 2026. Learn about key risks and country-specific outlooks. 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