Bangkok, Thailand – InnovestX Securities assesses the overall economic and investment outlook for the fourth quarter of 2024 as a period of significant transition, both for the global and Thai economies. The firm predicts that the SET Index will rise to 1,500 points by the end of this year and further to 1,550 points in 2025.
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Mr. Sukit Udomsirikul, Chief Research Officer at InnovestX Securities, stated that the global economy is stepping into a new era where the U.S. economy is starting to slow down, interest rates are likely to decrease, and U.S. economic and political policies are highly uncertain following the presidential election.
Although this situation may cause fluctuations in global stock markets, the decline in U.S. bond yields and the weakening of the U.S. dollar will be positive factors for emerging markets, including the Thai stock market.
For Thailand, despite the economic slowdown in the first half of the year, it is expected to recover well in the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by the government’s economic stimulus measures, particularly the Phase 1 of the Digital Wallet project.
Mr. Sutthichai Kumworachai, Head of Investment Strategy at InnovestX Securities, added that the global economy continues to expand well, although major economies are starting to slow down. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts will trigger other central banks to follow suit, which will support the attractiveness of emerging markets, including Thailand.
Dr. Piyasak Manason, Head of Economic Research at InnovestX Securities, commented that in the fourth quarter of 2024, the global economy, interest rates, and politics will enter a new era. Major economies will slow down, interest rates will enter a downward cycle, and global politics will become more volatile.
For the Thai economy, it is expected to grow by 3.5% in the fourth quarter and 2.5% for the full year 2024. Additionally,the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to cut interest rates by 1.0% in 2024 and 2025 to support economic growth and reduce pressure on the Thai baht.
Mr. Sitthichai Duangrattanachaya, Senior Global Equity Strategist at InnovestX Securities, suggested an investment strategy for the fourth quarter of 2024, stating that the Thai stock market still has room for growth, despite volatility from external factors, especially the U.S. presidential election.
However, the Fed’s interest rate cuts, the weakening of the U.S. dollar, and the new government’s economic stimulus policies will support the SET Index in an upward trend. The firm estimates the SET Index target at 1,500 points by the end of 2024 and 1,550 points in 2025.
Top stock picks include BDMS, CPALL, GPSC, HANA, and LHHOTEL, which are companies with a continuous recovery trend in earnings, benefiting from domestic consumption and interest rate cuts.
Mr. Visakorn Kirivan, CFA, Investment Strategist at InnovestX Securities, said that the investment situation in late Q3 was highly volatile and is expected to increase further in the final quarter of the year.
InnovestX still believes that the U.S. economy will experience a soft landing and expects global equity markets to remain volatile in the first half of Q4 before starting to recover after the U.S. presidential election concludes.
Therefore, it is recommended that investors reduce their holdings in large-cap U.S. stocks and Thai equities, and diversify into U.S. small-cap value stocks. Additionally, they are adjusting their view to increase weight in bonds.
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