TRIS Rating has affirmed the issuer credit rating on Central Plaza Hotel PLC (CENTEL) and the ratings on its senior unsecured debentures at “A-” with a “Stable” rating outlook. The affirmation reflects CENTEL’s established market position across Thailand’s hospitality and quick-service restaurant (QSR) sectors, alongside earnings resilience expected to counterbalance near-term external headwinds.
Geopolitical Factors and Tourism Market Dynamics
Near-term hotel earnings face pressure from elevated travel costs and softer sentiment associated with the ongoing war in Iran, prompting TRIS Rating to adjust its 2026 foreign tourist arrival forecast for Thailand down to 32.4 million from 35.0 million. International arrivals to Thailand declined 2.3% year-on-year to 14.0 million during the first five months of 2026, driven by lower long-haul traffic, though an 18.4% increase in Chinese visitors helped mitigate the impact. Domestic travel, supported by government stimulus initiatives and fourth-quarter events, is anticipated to provide a cushion until market conditions gradually improve in 2027.
CENTEL’s Maldives operations have similarly experienced near-term disruptions due to transit hub dependencies in the Middle East, resulting in a 5.7% year-on-year decline in tourist arrivals to the destination during the first half of 2026. However, a near 20% increase in arrivals from China and Russia provided offset. The long-term outlook for the region remains supported by the new international terminal at Velana International Airport, which opened in the third quarter of 2025 to expand passenger capacity and relieve historical arrival bottlenecks.
Revenue Projections and QSR Expansion Strategy
CENTEL’s hotel revenue per available room (RevPAR) is projected to increase 7% year-on-year to THB4,439 in 2026, primarily driven by performance ramping up at the newly opened Centara Mirage Lagoon and Centara Grand Lagoon Maldives. RevPAR is forecast to reach THB4,800–THB5,045 between 2027 and 2028, supported by asset uplift and renovation projects including Centara Grand Krabi, Centara Villa Phuket, Centara Grand Phuket, and the extension of Centara Reserve Samui.
+--------------------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| Financial Metric | 2026 Forecast | 2027–2028 Forecast |
+--------------------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
| Total Operating Revenue | THB 26 billion | THB 29–30 billion/yr |
| Hotel RevPAR | THB 4,439 / room | THB 4,800–5,045 / room|
| QSR Annual Revenue | THB 13.2–14.5 billion | THB 13.2–14.5 billion |
| Projected Annual EBITDA | THB 7.0 billion | THB 7.8–8.1 billion |
| EBITDA Margin Range | 26% – 27% | 26% – 27% |
+--------------------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+
The QSR segment is expected to deliver stable annual revenues of THB13.2–THB14.5 billion between 2026 and 2028, driven by the net addition of 45–65 outlets annually. Flagship brand KFC continues to contribute over half of QSR revenue and EBITDA, while Mister Donut, Auntie Anne’s, and Ootoya collectively supply approximately 30%. Expansion through joint ventures—such as investments in The Food Selection Group (Shinkanzen Sushi, Nakla Moo Kata) and Miracle Planet Co., Ltd. (Lucky Suki, Lucky BBQ)—continues to broaden brand diversification.
Capital Expenditure, Financial Leverage, and Liquidity
Total revenue is projected to reach THB26 billion in 2026 and THB29–THB30 billion annually across 2027–2028, with the EBITDA margin maintaining a 26%–27% range. Overall financial leverage, measured as adjusted debt to EBITDA, is expected to remain near current levels over the next two years as planned capital expenditures and the lease extension of Centara Grand at Central Plaza Ladprao balance EBITDA contributions from new assets. Adjusted debt to EBITDA is projected to measure approximately 3.8 times by 2028, down from 4.0 times for the trailing 12 months ending March 2026.
Planned hotel capital expenditure and investments are estimated at THB8–THB9 billion total for 2026–2028, alongside THB700–THB800 million in annual spending for QSR expansion. CENTEL’s liquidity position remains adequate, backed by THB3.6 billion in cash, THB9.5 billion in undrawn project loans and credit facilities, and projected funds from operations (FFO) of THB5.2 billion against near-term debt repayments of THB3.8 billion. As of March 2026, the company’s interest-bearing debt to equity ratio stood at 0.73 times, well within the loan covenant threshold of 2.0 times.
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